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How freaking awesome is this, eh? Now if only we could send people out to explore this new world. What would we find? Hell, who would we find? I mean, I know it's warmer than Earth, according to the scientists, but we have species who can live in the coldest and hottests places on Earth and survive. So why not there, right?
Can you imagine the potential diversity of life on this new planet? Would they have intelligent life? Would they be larger than Humans? Or smaller? Would they walk on land? Or swim in their vast seas? So many questions, and little we can do to answer them at this time, unfortunately. Here is the article:
Okay, so the atmosphere wouldn't support humanity without a suit, but still, life is quite adaptable and this world appears to have the necessary ingredients for life. Even if it's barely a single cell.PARIS (AFP) – Astronomers have discovered a new Earth-like planet that is larger than our own and may be more than half covered with water, according to a study published Wednesday in the science journal Nature.
The so-called "super Earth" is about 42 light years away in another solar system and has a radius nearly 2.7 times larger than that of our planet, according to the study by the Harvard-Smithsonian Centre for Astrophysics.
The discovery of the planet, called GJ 1214b, represents a "major step forward" in the search for worlds similar to the Earth, added the University of California's Geoffrey Marcy in a commentary also in Nature.
The "newfound world" is too hot to sustain life as we know it, said the Harvard-Smithsonian Centre for Astrophysics in a statement.
Its density suggests however it "is composed of about three-fourths water and other ices and one fourth-rock," it said. "There are also tantalising hints that the planet has a gaseous atmosphere."
Its temperature is estimated at between 280 and 120 degrees Celsius (536 and 248 degrees Fahrenheit) with its host star about one-fifth the size of the Sun, according to the scientists.
"Despite its hot temperature, this appears to be a waterworld," says Zachory Berta, a graduate student who first spotted hints of the planet's presence.
"It is much smaller, cooler and more Earthlike than any other known exoplanet," he said in the statement.
An exoplanet is one outside of our solar system.
Berta said some of the water would likely be in crystalline form that exists at pressures greater than 20,000 times Earth's sea-level atmosphere.
Its temperature is much lower than that on the only similar discovery, called CoRoT-7b, which revolves around a star that is much hotter, the scientists say.
The CoRoT-7b has a density close to that of the Earth (5.5 grammes per cubic centimetre) and seems to be rocky, while the new discovery appears to be much less dense (1.9 g/cm3).
"To keep the planet's density that low requires that it contains large amounts of water," said Marcy. "It must contain a huge amount of water, roughly 50 percent by mass."
The "wild card" is the make-up of the gases on the planet, he said.
The planet orbits every 38 hours around a small, faint star that was first spotted by eight ground-based telescopes no larger than those used by amateur astronomers, the Harvard-Smithsonian Centre said.
Its relative closeness makes its possible to study it to determine its atmosphere.
"That will make it the first super Earth with a confirmed atmosphere -- even though that atmosphere probably won't be hospitable to life as we know it," said David Charbonneau who heads the research team.
Until next time...
-Wil
The World Wildlife Fund has a lovely site where you can send a lantern to Copenhagen to show your support for the environment! It's free and it only takes about ten seconds. You get to choose the color and shape of the lantern!
It's just in time for the caribou - the trend in colder climates of snow melting and re-freezing means that they can't reach their primary food, lichen under the thick layer of ice. Hopefully we can reverse the trend.
I've had some great conversations with my Vox buddies about the concept of scientific consensus. There seems to be this mythology that Consensus among scientists means bullying around anyone who disagrees with their theories. First and foremost, it's important to understand that theories are proven explanations of natural phenomenon; unlike a hypothesis, which is an unproven statement.
Consensus is not formed by a gaggle of secretive researchers. It's not about hiding data or being snobby. Consensus is a synthesis of the data. There has been no single mind-blowing study that proves global warming theory all by itself. Each scientist presents their humble piece of data to contribute to the larger puzzle. As an example, these 3 articles:
Coral bleaching, ocean warming and ocean acidification
Cyclone activity in the North Atlantic
More increases in cyclone activity
These articles discuss global warming in the context of coral bleaching, ocean warming and acidification, and cyclone activity. They have no connection to East Anglia or Climategate. Notice in the Methods section: each article has dozens of references to data which is prone to error.
Each article mentions the pitfalls and shortcomings of the study. This assures that the data gleaned from each study can be filtered out and only the good parts used: to make a small contribuiton to the larger picture of global warming. This synthesis of the data forms the consensus within the scientific community.
Please give the articles at least a scan, if you're interested in understanding how this global warming theory has been formed, in part. Most exciting for me, the general public is bandying about words like "ice coring" and "tree ring data". After the holidays I'm hoping to post some fun stuff about how the research is conducted and the complexities of synthesizing the data.
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And check out the multicultural demonstrations in Copenhagen!!
Maine - at least here in Eastern Maine - is already powered by hydroelectricity, but offering alternatives would be a great idea. I just hope that it isn't the government doing the offering. Private enterprises should be allowed to buy rights to start the wind turbines ane compete with Bangor Hydro and other energy companies in Maine and New England. Here is the article:
This would be so damned cool. Hope this pans out. Maine could use the income - and power - generated from this endeavor.Ken Christian, Information Center Content Manager.
AUGUSTA, Maine (AP) -- Maine officials have identified locations of three offshore wind-power test sites that would be the first of their kind in the nation and could unlock the door to huge reserves of energy.
The administration of Gov. John Baldacci announced Tuesday that the sites will be near Boon Island off York in southern Maine, near Damariscove Island south of Boothbay Harbor, and south of Monhegan Island off Port Clyde.
UMaine Professor Habib Dagher says the test windmills will appear in 2011.
Dagher said winds off Maine's shores have a potential to produce the equivalent of 149 nuclear plants.
Gov. John Baldacci called the offshore test the first of its kind in the country and said, "This is where the future lies."
(Copyright 2009 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)
Until next time...
-Wil
In that article is stated that scientists in Great Britain were reading through logs of ship Captain's from the 1600's to about the 1750's. In it, it states as a reminder that a small ice-age - also known as The Little Ice-Age - occured between about 1600 to about 1850. Among the logs reviewed were those of Admiral Sir Horatio Nelson - which is to your left - and Captain James Cook, one of the most famous explorers of that age - I will post a pic of his portrait below. To see their ships, HMS Victory, commanded by Admiral Nelson at Trafalgar - and Captain Cook's first ship - HMS Resolution. You can view them in my photo section to the right of the main page. Here is the first article:
Records kept by Nelson and Cook are shedding light on climate change
The logbooks kept by every naval ship, ranging from Nelson’s Victory and Cook’s Endeavour down to the humblest frigate, are emerging as one of the world’s best sources for long-term weather data. The discovery has been made by a group of British academics and Met Office scientists who are seeking new ways to plot historic changes in climate.
“This is a treasure trove,” said Dr Sam Willis, a maritime historian and author who is affiliated with Exeter University’s Centre for Maritime Historical Studies.
“Ships’ officers recorded air pressure, wind strength, air and sea temperature and other weather conditions. From those records scientists can build a detailed picture of past weather and climate.”
A preliminary study of 6,000 logbooks has produced results that raise questions about climate change theories. One paper, published by Dr Dennis Wheeler, a Sunderland University geographer, in the journal The Holocene, details a surge in the frequency of summer storms over Britain in the 1680s and 1690s.
Many scientists believe storms are a consequence of global warming, but these were the coldest decades of the so-called Little Ice Age that hit Europe from about 1600 to 1850.
Wheeler and his colleagues have since won European Union funding to extend this research to 1750. This shows that during the 1730s, Europe underwent a period of rapid warming similar to that recorded recently – and which must have had natural origins.
Hints of such changes are already known from British records, but Wheeler has found they affected much of the north Atlantic too, and he has traced some of the underlying weather systems that caused it. His research will be published in the journal Climatic Change.
The ships’ logs have also shed light on extreme weather events such as hurricanes. It is commonly believed that hurricanes form in the eastern Atlantic and track westwards, so scientists were shocked in 2005 when Hurricane Vince instead moved northeast to hit southern Spain and Portugal.
Many interpreted this as a consequence of climate change; but Wheeler, along with colleagues at the University of Madrid, used old ships’ logs to show that this had also happened in 1842, when a hurricane followed the same trajectory into Andalusia.
The potential of Royal Navy ships’ logs to offer new insights into historic climate change was spotted by Wheeler after he began researching weather conditions during famous naval battles. Later, as global warming moved up the scientific agenda, he and others realised that the same data could shed light on historic climate change.
He said: “British archives contain more than 100,000 Royal Navy logbooks from around 1670 to 1850 alone. They are a stunning resource.”
Most of these earlier documents contain verbal descriptions of weather rather than numerical data, because ships lacked the instruments to take numerical readings. However, Wheeler and his colleagues found early Royal Navy officers recorded weather in consistent language.
“It means we can deduce numerical values for wind strength and direction, temperature and rainfall,” he said. The information will ultimately contribute to the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmos-phere Data Set, a global database maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a US government agency.
Wheeler makes clear he has no doubts about modern human-induced climate change. He said: “Global warming is a reality, but what our data shows is that climate science is complex and that it is wrong to take particular events and link them to CO2 emissions. These records will give us a much clearer picture of what is really happening.”
The Met Office has also set up a project, part-funded by Defra, the environment ministry, to study 900 logbooks kept by the East India Company on voyages between Europe and the Far East between 1780 and 1840. Its vessels carried thermometers and barometers so the data is of higher quality.
Faced with logs taken over so many voyages, the researchers have had to be selective. One of the most avid recorders of such data was Nelson himself, whose personal logbook records the air pressure and other readings he took up to several times daily.
Explorers with a weather eye
Britain’s explorers left vital records of weather around the world
— Robert FitzRoy was captain of HMS Beagle on two expeditions in the 1820s and 1830s. Charles Darwin was his passenger
— Vice-Admiral Horatio Nelson’s voyages took him to the Arctic, the East and West Indies and the Mediterranean before his death at Trafalgar in 1805
— Captain James Cook mapped much of Canada and the Pacific in the 1760s and 1770s.
Here is the second article - this one from The Telegraph, also from the UK - on how the log books of Admiral Nelson and Captain Cook are helping scientists understand Climate Change:
Captain Cook's weather reports from Discovery and Resolution, made at noon each day on his voyages to unknown lands, William Bligh’s Bounty and 300 other vessels are being transcribed and digitised.
The project will allow climatologists to trace weather patterns and climate change .
The log books, stored in the National Archives at Kew, contain a unique and highly accurate account of temperature, ice formation, air pressure and wind speed and direction in remote locations all over the world.
Now the UK Colonial Registers and Royal Navy Logbooks project, a partnership that includes the Met Office Hadley Centre and the University of Sunderland, is making all the logs available online.
The weather reports are being charted to allow instant comparisons between past observations and current conditions.
Dennis Wheeler, the project leader and a climatologist, told The Times: "Reading these logs gives me a growing respect for the navigation skills of these captains and officers. The lives of everyone on board often depended on the accuracy of their observations.
“Their conscientious and remarkably detailed reporting has given us an invaluable data resource which fills huge gaps in our knowledge about the history of the climate.”
Victorian logs being digitised under the project include those from the Beagle, the ship that carried the young Charles Darwin on a five-year expedition around the world.
A fully searchable version of the logs will be available on the National Archives website next year.
Hmm... Interesting information, no? Could it be that this has all happened before, and will happen again - even without blaming Humanity for the end of the world? Sorry for the Battlestar Galactica reference, but it sure seems to fit, doesn't it?
With the revelation that previous "evidence" may not be entirely accurate, this should come in quite handy in gathering the data once more. This time, preferably, without an organization who is for one point of view over another. It seems to me that one good thing has come out of the leaked e-mails regarding "global warming". It will allow us all to look at the supposed "hard science" regarding "global warming" - er, sorry, that's "climate change" now. Convenient how they slipped a name change in there, eh?
Anywho, I look forward to the coming years - and with any luck, decades - of new research on the matter. Maybe we'll finally begin to hear the truth about all this "climate change" mumbo-jumbo.
As always, I look forward to your comments. Until next time...
-Wil
By DAVID ESPO, AP Special Correspondent
Majority Leader Harry Reid refused to provide any details at a mid-evening news conference where he told reporters a "broad agreement" had been reached between liberals and moderates on the controversial issue.
With it, he said, the end is in sight for passage of the legislation that Congress has labored over for months.
In place of a government-run plan, originally designed as a way of forcing competition on private industry, officials said the Democrats had tentatively settled on a private insurance arrangement to be supervised by the federal agency that oversees the system through which lawmakers purchase coverage. Additionally, the tentative deal calls for Medicare to be opened to uninsured Americans beginning at age 55, a significant expansion of the large government health care program that currently serves the 65-and-over population.
The officials who described the details did so on condition of anonymity, saying they were not authorized to discuss them publicly. Despite their reluctance, some senators had talked openly earlier in the day about the progress of the negotiations.
The developments followed a vote on the Senate floor earlier in the day in which abortion opponents failed to inject tougher restrictions into sweeping health care bill, and Democratic leaders labored to make sure fallout from the issue didn't hamper the drive to enact legislation. The vote was 54-45.
I'm actually quite happy about this. I don't mind there being an option so long as there are strict criteria that needs to be met before one can avail themselves of such a service. And, so long as they don't try forcing private insurances to do their bidding. We need more competition, not less.
Oh, and if we do anything of the sort, it should be when we arn't in debt up to our eyeballs. Use the money to pay down the debt, cut back a bit, even. Ya never know, it might just - you know - work. At least, that's what I've been doing with my personal debt, and you wanna know something? I'm learning far more by paying this off and cutting back than I ever did when someone else paid it for me. There's a lesson in there somewhere, I'm sure of it.
Until next time...
-Wil
A couple of interesting things in the news this week about geology. First, the funny but sad one:
The "Leaning Tower" of South Padre is being demolished. What is that, you asked? The Leaning Tower of South Padre, also known as the Ocean Tower condominium [1] complex, is a 31-story tall building with neighboring parking garage that was built on South Padre Island. Padre Island (North and South) is of interest to geologists as the longest barrier island in the world. Barrier islands form from sand that is swept down the coast under the influence of tides, waves, and storms; being sand, they are unstable and do not last very long. Thus, only an idiot would build on one [1] and only a true imbecile would build a large hotel on one (or buy a condo there!).
Amusingly, the Ocean Tower began to demonstrate the foolishness of its investors even before it was finished. With only half the floors finished, it began to settle, cracking the beams and causing enough structural damage that it must be demolished. The investment firm behind the project is suing the architect and engineer for $125,000,000. Personally, I think that they should sue the county commissioners who allowed the project to go ahead, but who expects intelligence from a government employee nowadays?
And now the just plain cool one:
JohnScientists have calculated the time it took the Mediterranean Ocean to fill [3]; based on their calculations, it took between a few months and two years for it to go from a salt-floored basin to a water-filled one. This was known as the Zanclean flood, and it happened about five million years ago. The flood changes the geography and climate of the Mediterranean basin. It also changed the flow of water through the world's oceans. Because the water that escapes from the Mediterranean is very salty and hence is very dense, it can be tracked for thousands of miles after it leaves the Straits of Gibraltar [4] and goes into the Atlantic.
To put this into perspective, you would have to empty the equivalent of the Great Lakes every four days for two years to fill up the Mediterranean. World-wide, the sea level dropped ten meters (about thirty-three feet) when the Mediterranean filled up, and the water rose in the basin at ten meters a day for two years. The waterfall from the deluge stretched more than a hundred miles long, was more than two miles wide, and spilled more water every second than 11,000 Niagara Falls. Now that is entertainment!
[1] Please, oh please! follow the link so you can see "real estate speak" at its most amusing!
[2] Yes, Galveston, I'm speaking to you!
[3] What? You thought it had always been there? Heck, no! The Med was formed after Pangaea broke apart and two of the pieces (Africa and Europe) crashed back together. When they came together, they enclosed part of the Tethys Sea and formed a mountain range running from the Alps to Iraq. The enclosed basin had more evaporation than rainfall, and so the water levels dropped, forming salt deposits. As the pieces continued to move, they formed the Straits of Gibraltar which was a low-lying place that allowed water to trickle through until it wore down enough to become a flood.
[4] Interestingly, the Straits of Gibraltar are one of the few places in the world with a steady dual-layer flow system. At the surface, water flows out from the Atlantic and into the Mediterranean. As it circulates to the east, water evaporates, increasing the salinity. The denser but warmer water sinks and flows out into the Atlantic along the bottom of the Straits. So which direction the water flows depends on what depth you are at!
Excerpts from Skepticblog:
In March of 2006 a female student and exotic dancer accused three Duke lacrosse players of raping her. In the following weeks media commentators wrote and spoke about the moral implications of this heinous crime. What does this mean about the moral fabric of our society, about the role of privilege, class, and justice? It seemed that everyone had their opinion about the meaning of this crime.
That is, right until it was revealed that the accusations were a hoax – there never was any crime. After the revelation there was barely a “nevermind” (ala Gilda Radner from SNL ) from those so free to moralize based upon the initial accusations. One exception was David Brooks who wrote:
Witch hunts go in stages. First frenzy, when everybody damns the souls of people they don’t know. Then confusion, as the first wave of contradictory facts comes in. Then deafening silence, as everybody studiously ignores the vicious slanders they uttered during the moment of maximum hysteria.
It feels to me, with the Climategate scandal, that we are in the frenzy stage of this witch hunt. But already the “first wave of contradictory facts” are coming in also.. . .
Dr. Phil Jones, the head of the CRU, has stepped down while the investigation is ongoing, and I think that is prudent. I also think that, given the controversy, we need absolute transparency with this data and independent analysis. This is actually a good opportunity to refocus on the science and evidence of AGW.
But I doubt that the maximally hysterical pronouncements of the extreme AGW dissidents, for whom this scandal was an instant confirmation of all their darkest accusations, will pan out. It seems highly unlikely that climategate will change the consensus of scientific opinion on AGW. It also seems unlikely that the degree of fraud that is being accused has in fact occurred.
. . .
If early indications are representative, then it seems that the scientists are guilty of some poor judgment, poorly chosen words, and not dealing well with the pressures of being at the center of a scientific controversy. But even this moderate conclusion is tentative, and must wait for the results of a thorough investigation.
For global warming dissidents I recommend that you put your rhetoric in check. The witch-hunt frenzy so far in evidence cannot possibly serve you well. If it turns out there was real fraud at the CRU, you will still be criticized for being prematurely shrill and you will lose credibility. Also, the more extravagant your condemnations, the more likely it is that the reality will not be as bad as you are stating – and therefore even if some indiscretions come to light, you will have actually softened the blow because they will not be as bad as the worst hysterical claims. And of course, if it comes to light that no real fraud occurred, the credibility of AGW dissidents will have been dealt a severe blow.
. . .
I don’t know what the lessons of climategate are yet – we need to see what actually happened first. But how people deal with climategate says a lot about their process. Those who are making bold claims based upon ambiguous, circumstantial, and out-of-context evidence, are not doing themselves or their side any favors.
Do me a favor, would you? Start counting. I’m willing to lay pretty long odds that you counted like this:
and not like this:1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Why does this matter? Because this is 2009 and, just as was the case in 2000, there are many out there calling this the end of the decade. Simply put (in deference to Kent [1]), this is the ninth year of the decade not the tenth – the decade won’t end until December 31, 2010.0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
Don’t believe me? Go back to that counting you just did, only start with 2001. 2009 is only number nine on the list, not number ten. See – we’ve got a whole ‘nother year in the decade!
So why do people do this [2]? Partly laziness and partly a failure to think. The failure to think is obvious – just counting the years would show that this wasn’t the end of the decade [3].The laziness is a little less so. Because so many people have decided to go with the wrong answer, other folks assume that it is the right one [4]. And few of those who know better are willing to make the obvious point that the wrong answer is, well, wrong. They feel (not without reason) that there are more important things to worry about than a misplaced terminator [5] (e.g., the end of the world, the end of the world as we know it, and the end of the whirl as we know it).
To a certain extent I agree with them. But it still annoys the crap out of me that so many cannot even count, much less think about what they are counting!
John
[1] Geek points for the reference!
[2] FWIW, this is not a new phenomenon. There were folks in the 1800’s who were just as confused as to when the twentieth century began [a] and don’t even get me started on the whole change from the Julian to the Gregorian calendars [b]!
[3] Other than in the same sense that any year can be the end of a decade, if the decade is arbitrarily begun.
[4] Sort of like the idjits on TV that refer to Clinton, Reagan, Bush, and the other ex politicos as “President So and so”, even though they are no longer properly accorded that title once they have left the office of PotUS. Or the jukes who think that the seasons begin on the solstices/equinoxes and not half-way between them. Or the kallikaks who vote single party tickets.
[5] They also worry (again, not without reason) of being labeled as “party poopers” and pedants, simply because they would like things to be called by the correct honorific. IMHO, those who use the pejoratives do so because that is the only answer they can make.
[a] And that’s another source of confusion, isn’t it? The first century covers the years from 1 to 100, the second covers the years from 101 to 200, and so forth until we reach the twenty-first century, which covers the years 2001-2100.
[b] Proposed by Pope Gregory XIII in 1582 CE, it wasn’t the international standard until 1926, when Turkey finally adopted it. What this meant was that if it was Tuesday, March 9, 1926 in Belgium, it was Tuesday, March 22, 1926 in Turkey. Imagine drawing the International Date Line for 1900, when at leat eight major countries had not adopted the Gregorian calendar!
